When Pakistan tried to become a superpower

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The Future of Pakistan: Conference Convened by USIP & Brookings in 2011

The Future of Pakistan: Event Wrap: Charting Pakistan’s future is a nearly impossible task as it is so steeped in uncertainty. And yet it is critical to American foreign policy, with more than 100,000 U.S. troops fighting a resilient insurgency across the border in Afghanistan. While the challenges are nearly insurmountable, experts say, there are areas in which progress for the U.S.-Pakistani relationship is possible.

FW: THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN - A CONVERSATION WITH DR. STEPHEN COHEN

The Future of Pakistan

Sunday Magazine Feature

By Malik Siraj A

Dr Stephen P Cohen, a Senior Fellow at the Washington DC-based think tank the Brookings Institution, is considered as the ‘dean of the Pakistan experts’ He wrote following books on Pakistan

• Pakistan Army 
• Idea of Pakistan,
• The Future of Pakistan.

 Here are excerpts from a conversation with Dr Cohen about the predictions the book makes about Pakistan's future.

Some of the best experts on Pakistan contribute to your book The Future of Pakistan. Why did you choose this title?

The book does not look at yesterday or today, but the day after tomorrow by examining the factors and variables which will influence the future of Pakistan. I became more concerned after publishing my 2004 book, The Idea of Pakistan, as many of its more pessimistic judgments were coming true. So, I invited some of the best scholars on the subject to share their ideas. All of them expressed concern about the existing situation. Most seemed to agree, however, that Pakistan would not experience major transformation in the next five to seven years. We did not try to look beyond that.

In my chapter, I paid special attention to the decline of the Pakistani state. The more I looked, the more pessimistic I became

You say you did not want to offend your Pakistani friends while writing this book but you also insist that a hurtful truth is better than a pleasant lie. What are these hurtful truths about Pakistan that you think need to be told now?

One was that General Pervez Musharraf fooled himself and he fooled everyone else. He lacked toughness, he tried to please everyone. He was not capable of leading Pakistan's liberal transformation, although he personally held a liberal vision of the future. Some Pakistanis and many Americans thought that Musharraf was the last hope for Pakistan. I disagree, there are a lot of good Pakistanis around, both in the military and outside of it. However,the army can't govern the country effectively but it won't let others govern it either. This is the governance dilemma. Pakistan is stuck between being an outright military dictatorship and a stable democracy. Neither are likely, and an even less likely future would be a radical transformation and the rise of Islamists or a breakaway movement led by the Baloch or other separatist groups. We did not see this coming soon, yet with the obvious breakdown of law and order, the decline of the economy, as well as a dysfunctional civilian-military relationship — change seems to be in the wind — but few of us can be precise about what that change will be. Pakistan is muddling through, but change and transformation are coming, I just don't know when or how.

Weakness in governance, education, and the absence of land reform made Pakistan a victim of contemporary globalisation. It doesn't make much that anyone wants to buy, and it is cut off from its natural regional trading partners. Yet, the negative aspects of Islamist globalisation have hit Pakistan hard. Some of the weirdest ideas in the Islamic world have found rich soil in Pakistan, and the country is regarded as an epicentre of terrorism. Pakistan, which was once held up as the most moderate of the Islamic states, seems to be embracing extremists and their dysfunctional violent ideas.

Is Pakistan on the verge of collapse?

No, it is not going to collapse. The military will ensure that the state will not collapse. It is not a country in need of critical support for its survival but it may yet happen some day, especially if the economy collapses.

Pakistan has to make a breakthrough and become a South Asian country. It should join India in a number of cooperative ventures while protecting its sovereignty against foreign interests and intrusions.

The Indians tend to be bullying when it comes to their neighbours, but Pakistanis are capable of defending their interests. Many Indians are ready for a change now. India sees itself as a major rising Asian state and Pakistan is a drag on it.

Yet, because of nuclearisation India can't conceive of finishing off Pakistan. The only realistic option for India is cooperation. Islamabad's decision to grant India the most favoured nation (MFN) status offers an opportunity to both countries; will it lead to a peace process? I don't know, but their dilemma is that they cannot live with each other and they cannot live without each other. They need to cooperate along several dimensions, there is no military solution for the problems each has with the others

Why do you call Pakistan a major foreign policy headache for the United States?

In the book I quote an American who said we assumed that with all our aid and alliances we believed that Pakistan would emerge as an independent democratic state. However, it turned out that India, which did not get our military assistance and partnership, has emerged as that kind of country.

The Pakistanis, particularly the military, have a hard time looking around for role models. Turkey, Indonesia or Malaysia may not be the perfect role models for Pakistan. Perhaps the best political role model for you is India which is also a diverse South Asian state, but now with a stable political order and growing economic power. In India, the military has a legitimate role but still remains under the government's control.

It is the responsibility of the Pakistani civilian government to find a legitimate role for the Pakistani army, and the army must help in that search, the present arrangement is not working

You say you don't know where Pakistan is heading to but once it gets there you will explain why it was inevitable.

I quoted a former US ambassador to the Soviet Union who said, "I don't know what is going to happen to the Soviet Union but when it does happen I will tell you exactly why it was inevitable." So, looking ahead at Pakistan's future, we don't know what is going to happen to Pakistan but we know something alarming is happening to it. Pakistan will remain, but its identity is changing.

As for America's mixed role in Pakistan, there were two areas where we should have been more accommodating. First, we should have recognised Pakistan as a nuclear power after it tested its weapons in 1998 — as we did with the Indians. This would have legitimised the Pakistani nuclear programme and reduced the paranoia that the Americans were trying to deprive them of their nuclear capability; it might also have contributed to more responsible Pakistani nuclear policy, right now it is the fastest growing nuclear weapons state in the world — and one with a bad record of transferring nuclear technology in the past. Second, the US should have provided trade opportunities, instead of only military aid, to Pakistan after 9/11. There was a serious Pakistani interest in increasing trade, not just receiving military aid; the US did not respond to thi

How can Pakistan get out of what you call the burden of its history and narrative of victimhood?

First, economic trade between Pakistan and the rest of South Asia should be encouraged. It should hook up with India, one of the fastest growing economies in the world, as well as continue its ties with China. The Iran-Pakistan-Indian pipeline is a good idea and I am baffled why the Americans have always opposed it. Yes, it will help the Iranians, but the pipeline will also help the Afghans, the Indians and the Pakistanis. In my math, three positives outweigh one negative.

Second, Pakistani governments have been cowardly in dealing with those who oppose modernity and try to push the country back to the seventh century. Perhaps the cowardice comes from the fact that the state uses some of these groups for its own strategic purposes, a fatal and self-defeating miscalculation

Why do you argue that the Pakistani military has neither run the country effectively nor allowed others to run it?

Well, because they are not trained to be economists or how to run businesses although the military manages a lot of businesses once they retire. They are not trained to be politicians. Being a politician is a difficult skill to acquire. People cannot be ordered about, especially Pakistanis. As a politician, you have to find common interests by working with people who dislike each other; Pakistan needs to develop a true political class.

In Pakistan, the military has identified enemies among its fellow-citizens. If you demonise your own people, you are in deep trouble. I mean you can't treat the Bengalis or the Baloch, or other ethnic or religious minorities the way you treat foreign enemies. That's the route to catastrophe, as we have seen both in Pakistan and other countries that have given up on pluralism and tolerance and headed down the road to self-destruction.

Of Pakistan's military leaders, Ayub Khan tried to act as a politician but failed because he could not address two deeper problems, education and land reforms. If you look at the East Asian tigers, they all dealt with land reforms early and invested heavily in education at all levels. Even China has done this, albeit through totalitarian coercion, which would not work in pluralistic Pakistan.

How much influence will Islam and the army continue to exercise on the future of Pakistan?

I like the idea of seeing Islamic parties getting a chance to govern, and then discovering whether they succeed or fail. I'd also like to see somebody like Imran Khan get elected — not that I am a particular fan of his, but let him get elected and assume the burden and responsibilities of governance, and be held accountable. Let him succeed or fail on these terms.

I had a conversation with Musharraf right after his coup and told him that while the obviously corrupt and extremist political leaders had to be held accountable, that he should also hold elections and let the democratic process move forward. He responded to the effect that he was going to fix the system once and for all. I knew then he was in deep trouble. In a normal state you have to allow people to fail. They must run for office, get elected and then fail on their own terms. It should be left to the people of Pakistan to decide who they elect to rule them. In the long run, they will make the right decision, but the courts, the press, and, rarely, even the military, will be around to prevent disaster. Failure should be seen as helping to perfect the system, not a sign of a bad system. The cure for bad democracy is more and better democracy, not an incompetent military regime, which only breeds resentment as it covers up its failures. In Pakistan the mentality seems to be that having won an election, the victor can persecute his or political rivals. I'd prefer a moderate competent military regime to this kind of pseudo democracy

How is failure in Afghanistan going to affect Pakistan?

If the Taliban come back to power or if they play a significant role in the future dispensation, there will be a major blowback on Pakistan. We may yet see how the government of Pakistan responds to the Taliban mindset which says that 'we [Taliban] have defeated one superpower, the United States, in Afghanistan and now we will take control of Pakistan and then India.' This is a revolutionary movement that has to be contained and stopped, not provided with safe-haven and political support. Staying away from Bonn was a strategic gaffe that put Pakistan on the opposite side of virtually the entire world

What are some of the future scenarios and options you discuss in the book about Pakistan?

Some American experts are talking about containing Pakistan. This is premature language, but if Pakistan pursues policies which are hostile to American interests in Afghanistan and if they support terrorism then we might move to a policy of containment . This would have two dimensions: erecting a military barrier while supporting internal transformation. I don't know about containing Pakistan militarily, it seems to be pursing self-defeating policies in any case, but I support the latter kind of policy. America's goal should be a normal Pakistan

What should or can be done to immediately bring Pakistan into what you call a 'normal state category'?

The long-term key to normalising Pakistan is India. The fear of India drives the Pakistan army and the army drives Pakistan. If India can normalise with Pakistan in one way or the other, then Pakistan can devote its resources and energy to becoming a more attractive and respected country

What are the warning signs and revolutionary options for Pakistan?

An interesting part of the book is where I compare Pakistan with a number of other states. Pakistan is unlikely to follow the Iranian model of a clergy-led revolution because the army in Pakistan is stronger than its counterpart was in Iran. The negative case for Pakistan would be that of Tsarist Russia where the country was destabilised by World War I, the army fell apart and Russia's ruling nobility had no credibility, and revolutionary groups filled the gap. There are also other bad examples like the Balkans or Yugoslavia, or interwar Japan, where the military pursued fatally self-destructive policies vis-a-vis the West and China.

Never in history have we seen a country so big with so many nuclear weapons in this kind of trouble. When the Chinese went through their cultural revolution, they did not have nuclear weapons. Hence, people were not much afraid of China. When the Soviet Union disintegrated and became Russia, they knew they wanted to become Europeans. Pakistanis should now decide to become South Asians by becoming once again a part of South Asia.

Can China become an alternative strategic partner of Pakistan to replace the US?

If the Chinese could teach Pakistan how to become an economic power, that would be great. Yet, the Chinese are not going to teach Pakistan how to become a democracy. Given Pakistan's complexity and social diversity, democracy is a good system for it because it allows most people to have a say in the affairs of the state. You can't run Pakistan from the centre. The army has tried that many times but has failed. After every military takeover, they called back the civilians within three years. On the political front, China is not a role model for Pakistan

Out of nukes, huge population and geostrategic location, what worries the world the most about an unstable Pakistan?

The nuclear weapons are probably under responsible control. If Pakistan breaks down or some separatist movements succeed, as happened in 1971, then we'll begin to worry about the nuclear weapons. Pakistan, like North Korea, is "too nuclear to fail," that is, no one wants to see a real nuclear weapons state disintegrate.

Also Pakistan, like North Korea, uses its nuclear asset and its political fragility as a means to extract concessions from other countries. We've contributed to this begging-bowl syndrome, for years. The US should provide aid to Pakistan but link it to more concrete reforms in education, administration, and democratisation. Otherwise we are wasting our time and money. I don't like the term 'trust deficit'; trust will grow when there are clear — and public — links between our respective obligations over time.

(Malik Siraj Akbar is a freelance journalist based in Washington DC.)

Published in The Express Tribune, Sunday Magazine, January 15^th, 2012.

A FUTURISTIC VISION OF PAKISTAN

 

 

Pakistan Today

A futuristic vision of Pakistan

BY ANWAAR AHMAD CH , (LAST UPDATED JUNE 22, 2014)

Here is how we can rebuild our homeland

Today Pakistan, pitched as it is, on the crossroads of its short but eventful national history, is faced with an acute crisis of confidence engulfing the whole ambit of its economic, social and political affairs. Prominent journalists of the world are painting a grim picture of this state of affairs in the country. They say there is a deep rooted internal crisis which has not been addressed so far and which they term as a failure of the indigenous elite class, both civil and military. Civil society is, no doubt, alive to the situation in Pakistan and has a powerful voice through the media, the NGOs and HR groups but they lack coordination and mobilisation. The promise of a new political order enchants the young and old alike. They would welcome any one who is new but promising and has the ability, talent and strength to eradicate corruption and anything that is antithetical to our national interest.

The prospect of a change in the country mainly rests with its youth who form 65% of its population. Some 40 years back one could witness a lot of youthful energy and hope across all segments of the university population. That energy has now dissipated. At the moment, the question before us is "Can we rebuild the people's Pakistan?" Let us try to reach an answer to this question. For this purpose we should first analyse where do we stand today and then see what could be the possibilities for our venerable State to survive and thrive.

Obviously, Pakistan is stuck up in a quagmire. Our important institutions including major state enterprises are mortally sick and may even collapse if not cured timely. Three state enterprises (Steel Mills, Railways and PIA) are incurring a recurring loss of some 200,000 rupees per minute. Secondly, the ongoing malaise of inflation is gradually sacking the purchasing power of the people. Thirdly, our GDP growth for the past many years has riveted on 3.5 per cent. Fourthly, our tax to GDP ratio of 12.6 per cent is lower than that of Ethiopia. Even our public representatives including the top leadership feel shy of paying s taxes. Fifthly, our debt servicing is equal to 120 per cent of the total federal government revenue. Sixthly, our expenditure on education has been floating between1.5 per cent to 2 per cent. Seventhly, our governance practices envisaging observance of the rule of law, have been rather discreditable. According to Transparency International, our corruption rating during 2011 stands at 134 out of 182 countries. Our national leadership does not inspire any confidence either.

The question now is whether we can rebuild and put Pakistan together in some new order. The answer is: 'Yes'. But this will be possible only if we could turn our challenges into opportunities. The writer would suggest adoption of the following measures to achieve this goal:

Honest and capable leadership:

It is rather sad but the fact remains that our present leadership has not succeeded to create an atmosphere in which both institutions and the individuals could best realise their potential. We have a vibrant and dynamic society. However, to exploit this God-gifted advantage, we need an exemplary governance system pioneered and executed by a set of God-fearing, talented, self-sacrificing, and highly dedicated leaders assisted by an equally efficient bureaucracy.

Social justice:

There should be an independent judiciary to dispense social and legal justice so that people feel that their basic rights are safe and intact. They should enjoy equal opportunities to work and build up their career. Their fundamental rights of expression, movement and earning of respectable livelihood should be preserved at all costs.

Education:

There should be a unique system of education for all. Syllabi should be devised in such a way that modern education in science and technology as also in vocational subjects be imparted and the moral and ethical values of our society be upheld. At least 5 per cent of GDP should be allocated to education sector and education be made compulsory for all. Financial assistance be given to the poor and incentives be introduced for the talented students.

Economic growth:

Our country is a mineral treasure of sorts and we need to exploit this treasure to protect our economic interest, to reduce our dependence on the debt and finally to stand on our own feet. Agriculture sector has been awfully ignored. Land tillers in the rural areas must needs be supplied electricity, graded seeds, fertilisers, insecticides and weed-killers, all at low rates. Measures should also be taken to provide them transportation facilities from field to market. Industry has had a great set back in the past. It needs round the clock power supply to survive. Good incentives be given to new investors. It will multiply domestic production and provide opportunities of employment to the needy and jobless. Radical measures are required to be taken to beef up the steel mills, railways and PIA.

Health care:

We spend only 2.5 per cent of our GDP on health which is perhaps the lowest in the world. Precisely, only five poverty stricken countries fall behind us. Even India and Sri Lanka are ahead of us with 3.9 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively. It is also deplorable that our physicians' density is 0.81 per 1,000 persons. According to the World Health Organization it should not be less than 2.3 per 1,000. Another amazing fact is that in our hospitals we have 1 bed for 1,667 persons while in Sri Lanka they have 1 bed for 323 persons. One can imagine as to where do we stand in the domain of healthcare. The authorities must rise to the occasion and give special attention to this prime sector.

Energy sector:

Load shedding has been and is still a major threat to industry and business and an appalling hardship for domestic consumers. Exploration of hydel power and coal is inevitable. Power generation is the need of the hour and must be given priority to help solve the current energy crisis.

Terrorism:

The country has been in the grip of terrorism for the last about three decades. The extremists have no regard for the life and property of innocent people. Bomb blasts, target killings and suicidal attacks have become a normal routine and have created an atmosphere of horror and terror. The business community is constrained to shift its enterprise to the neighbouring countries. In these uncongenial circumstances we cannot expect foreign investment in Pakistan. We have been front line partners of America in her war in Afghanistan having suffered heavy losses of life and property. We have spent more than $85 billion to combat terrorism on our streets and alleys. Can't we ask America to compensate us by paying off our external debt or else we shall be compelled to review our strategic policy?

Foreign affairs:

Our foreign policy urgently needs restructuring. We should scrutinise the balance sheet of gains and losses in the recent past. We are now in a better position to choose our friends carefully. We have to strengthen our relations with the neighbouring Muslim countries. Policy decisions have to be taken in the best interest of our own country. Bilateral relations be developed with each country on the principle of an equal independent status.

Austerity:

Austerity should begin at the highest level and filter down to the common people. We should observe it particularly with respect to the standard of our food, habitation, transport and life style. At government level non-development expenditure should be minimised. The cabinet needs to be suitably downsized. There should be 15-20 ministers in the federal cabinet and 10-12 at provincial level. Extravagant protocol be withdrawn altogether.

Accountability:

In order to eradicate malpractices, the public representatives and civil servants must declare their assets first at the commencement of their career, and then at the end of every financial year. The declarations of the public representatives should be monitored by the Election Cell and those of civil servants by the service tribunals. Corruption and fraud cases be sent up to accountability courts for speedy disposal.

Police:

The primary duty of maintenance of law and order in the country rests with the police force. It arrests the law breakers, registers cases against them, conducts intensive investigations and presents them before the courts of law for punitive action. Unfortunately, almost 50 per cent of the police force is deployed to give protocol and provide security to the government dignitaries. Moreover the police has outdated arms as also it lacks proper training to tackle the situation. The rate of crime is on the increase which breeds anarchy. The volume of cases of theft, dacoity, kidnapping, burglary, gang rape, robbery etc has shot up enormously.

This would naturally disrupt flow of normal life and hamper the pace of economic activity. The police force, therefore, needs thorough transformation to circumvent all genres of crime. Protocol/security staff should be withdrawn to make up for the shortage of the force. Police should be immunised against political affiliation and made to discharge its duties freely without any external pressure. The force must be fully equipped with modern weaponry, latest operational devices and high speed powerful transport.

A purposeful implementation of the above measures is sure to accelerate the process of rebuilding of Pakistan, our beloved home. We are committed to rekindle the hope of abolishing poverty, unemployment, insecurity, extremism and terrorism in our homeland, in a foreseeable future

 

Foreseeable Podcast: Asia and the international world order

Foreseeable Podcast: Asia and the international world order